After a volatile, holiday-shortened week ending April 11, Dalal Street closed with moderate losses. The market initially reacted negatively to the US imposing higher reciprocal tariffs on trade partners, but recovered after former President Donald Trump paused tariffs for 90 days—excluding China. This move offered a breather to nervous investors.
In the upcoming week, caution will likely prevail, especially after a weak start to the Q4 earnings season by TCS. Market participants will closely monitor several global and domestic cues, including inflation data, China’s GDP numbers, and the European Central Bank’s rate decision. With ongoing US-China trade tensions still unresolved, volatility may continue to dominate investor sentiment.
Top 10 Market Triggers to Watch This Week
1. Q4 Earnings Season: Spotlight on Indian IT and Banks
TCS has kicked off the earnings season on a somber note, reporting weaker-than-expected results and citing trade headwinds. This week, major IT and banking companies will release their quarterly numbers, which could either build investor confidence or drag down sentiment further.
2. US-China Trade Tensions: No End in Sight
While the US has paused tariffs for most nations, China remains excluded. This selective relief hints at continued geopolitical friction, and any new statement from Washington or Beijing could rattle global markets.Dalal Street
3. China GDP Data: Global Growth Insight
China, being a key global growth engine, will announce its GDP numbers this week. Any slowdown here could signal weaker global demand, especially impacting sectors like metals and commodities.
4. ECB Interest Rate Decision: Europe in Focus
The European Central Bank will reveal its rate decision this week. With inflationary pressures and slowing growth in the Eurozone, markets will closely follow ECB’s stance on monetary policy.
5. India Inflation Data: Eyes on Retail CPI
Retail inflation (CPI) will be a key domestic data point. A higher-than-expected print could dent rate cut expectations and impact rate-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate.
Dalal Street
6. Global Market Trends and FII Activity
The direction of global equity markets and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows will also affect Indian indices. Last week saw mixed FII activity, and any shift in sentiment could trigger short-term moves.
7. Crude Oil Prices: Supply Concerns Return
Brent crude remains volatile amid geopolitical risks and fluctuating supply forecasts. Any surge in oil prices will negatively impact India’s import bill and current account balance. Dalal Street
8. Currency Movement: INR vs USD
The Indian Rupee’s performance against the US Dollar is another indicator to watch. A weakening rupee may affect corporate earnings for import-heavy sectors.
9. Sectoral Rotation: Relief Rally or Trap?
Beaten-down sectors like IT, metals, and capital goods saw some recovery last week. However, investors should remain cautious about whether this is a short-lived relief rally or a trend reversal.
10. Holiday-Shortened Week: Low Volumes, High Swings
With markets remaining shut for a day due to a public holiday, trading volumes may remain thin—leading to sharp moves even on moderate news triggers. Dalal Street
Recent News
Last Week’s Market Snapshot
- Nifty 50 fell by 76 points, closing at 22,829, after recovering from a sharp Monday fall.
- Sensex declined by 207 points to end at 75,157.
- Nifty Midcap 100 was down 0.3%, while Smallcap 100 gained 0.13%.
- Tech, metals, and capital goods sectors led the recovery in the latter half.
Expert Take
Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking, said: Dalal Street
“The market remains sensitive to global developments, particularly related to US-China trade talks. Volatility is expected to persist in the near term.”
Conclusion: Stay Alert, Stay Informed
With so many macro and micro factors converging this week, investors should brace for potential swings in the market. Staying updated on earnings, global cues, and policy decisions will be key to making informed trading or investment choices.Dalal Street
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only. MoneyFlowInsight does not provide legal, financial, or professional advice. Please verify facts through official sources before taking any action.
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